Iqbal Hussain
“Jammu and Kashmir is increasingly being forced to confront a disturbing question: are cloudbursts becoming a new normal in the Himalayan region?”
The question is no longer purely academic. Since the onset of the 2026 monsoon, Jammu and Kashmir has witnessed numerous cloudburst incidents, resulting in deaths, injuries and widespread damage to houses, roads, bridges, agricultural and horticultural land, livestock and other infrastructure. Behind these figures are families losing homes, farmers watching fields and orchards being damaged, roads and bridges being washed away, and communities being temporarily cut off from essential services. The devastating Chisoti cloudburst of August 2025, which caused enormous human and material loss, remains a stark reminder of the vulnerability of Himalayan communities.
The recurrence of such events should not be treated simply as isolated episodes of bad weather. But does this mean every cloudburst is caused by climate change? Certainly not. A cloudburst is a highly localised and difficult-to-predict extreme rainfall event, and it would be scientifically incorrect to attribute every individual cloudburst directly to climate change. However, the broader climate context cannot be ignored. As temperatures rise, the atmosphere can hold more moisture, potentially increasing the intensity of heavy rainfall when suitable atmospheric conditions develop.
Changes in monsoon behaviour, the interaction of Western Disturbances with moisture-laden air, changing snow and glacier conditions, and the warming Himalayan environment are also important areas of scientific investigation. The crucial question is therefore not whether climate change “causes” every cloudburst, but whether a warming climate is changing the frequency, intensity or consequences of extreme precipitation events in the Himalayan region. For Kashmir, this distinction matters. A warmer and more variable climate can interact with fragile mountain terrain, rapid urbanisation, deforestation, shrinking natural drainage systems and construction in hazard-prone locations. What may once have been an intense rainfall event can produce far greater consequences when natural buffers have been weakened and human settlements have expanded into vulnerable areas. Climate change can increase the hazard; environmental degradation and poor planning can increase vulnerability. Together, they can magnify disaster risk. This is where the policy challenge lies.
“Climate change is altering Kashmir’s risk landscape, making extreme weather like cloudbursts a recurring reality. Since these events can no longer be dismissed as unpredictable acts of nature, the region must shift from panic or denial to proactive disaster preparedness.”
Kashmir needs to move from post-disaster relief towards climate adaptation and risk reduction before disaster strikes. Government planning should incorporate climate and extreme-rainfall scenarios into road, bridge, drainage, housing and urban-development decisions. Cloudburst and flash-flood-prone areas should be scientifically mapped; construction in vulnerable river channels, floodplains and unstable slopes should be strictly regulated; natural drainage channels and wetlands should be protected and restored; infrastructure should be strengthened; and weather monitoring, location-specific early-warning systems, evacuation routes and safe shelters should be improved.
The people also have an important role. People should avoid construction and settlement in high-risk areas, keep drains and natural water channels unobstructed, follow official warnings, maintain emergency kits and essential documents, identify safe evacuation locations and avoid crossing flooded streams or travelling during extreme rainfall. Regular community-based disaster preparedness exercises can save lives. Accurate damage assessment must also become an integral part of disaster management. After every major event, authorities should systematically document deaths, injuries, damaged and destroyed houses, roads, bridges, agriculture, horticulture, livestock, public infrastructure and livelihood losses. Such evidence can identify repeatedly vulnerable areas and guide investment in climate-resilient infrastructure. Schools can contribute to long-term resilience as well.
Climate education should move beyond textbook definitions of global warming. Students should understand local climate risks, extreme weather, disaster preparedness, water conservation, ecosystem protection and responsible land use. Climate awareness becomes meaningful only when it leads to informed and responsible behaviour. Kashmir cannot prevent every cloudburst. Nor can climate change be blamed for every extreme rainfall event. But repeated disasters can no longer be dismissed simply as unpredictable acts of nature. The evidence points towards a changing risk landscape. The appropriate response is therefore neither panic nor denial—it is preparedness. The real question is not whether Kashmir will experience another cloudburst. It is whether we will be better prepared when it comes.
( Author is a PhD Scholar at the Department of Environmental Science Integral University, Lucknow. The views, opinions and conclusions expressed in this article are those of the author and aren’t necessarily in accord with the views of “Kashmir Horizon”)
