The recent Turkey earthquake has sent shockwaves across the world, and its devastating impact captured through social media visuals has created widespread panic. This event serves as a wake-up call, particularly in the highly vulnerable region of Kashmir, which is known to be at risk of high-magnitude earthquakes. Kashmir has already experienced the devastating effects of an earthquake in the past, with the 2005 Muzaffarabad earthquake being the deadliest in the region. With over 80 thousand fatalities, nearly 2 lakh injuries, and 19 thousand children losing their lives, the earthquake left a lasting impact on the region. The earthquake also resulted in the loss of 2.5 lack farm animals and made over 3.5 million people homeless. Despite the 2005 earthquake being a wake-up call for the scientific community, policymakers, and civil society, it was quickly forgotten, and the region continued to build unsafe structures without following seismic guidelines. Scientists have warned that the Himalayan region, which includes Kashmir, is at risk of much larger earthquakes, with some estimating the magnitude could reach 8.5 or even greater. The region’s historical and seismological data suggests that a future earthquake could result in a death toll exceeding 100,000, given the increased population and vulnerability of current construction methods. Several studies in recent years have highlighted the increasing seismic vulnerability of the Kashmir valley, with experts suggesting that 10 out of 15 Himalayan segments are now mature enough to host a large-magnitude earthquake. The Kashmir valley has also experienced devastating earthquakes in the past, such as the September 1555 earthquake, which was described by historians as the largest in the region and resulted in many homes being destroyed, some collapsing into the river, and the development of fissures and ground cracks. A recent study published in the journal “Physics of Earth and Planetary Interiors” indicates that a large magnitude earthquake inside the Kashmir basin cannot be ruled out. The study used Earth’s Field nuclear magnetic resonance studies (EFNMR) to study the earthquake fault, and it was found that the Kashmir valley already has an active fault with a length of 100 km, which is capable of hosting a large magnitude earthquake. Given the potential for devastating earthquakes in the region, it is imperative that seismologists, civil engineers, geopolitical organizations, and civil societies work together to develop and adopt seismic strategies and guidelines for earthquake-resistant structures. Furthermore, policymakers should endorse research related to natural disasters and earthquake-induced disasters to avoid the revulsion caused by earthquakes in the Kashmir valley. Awareness programs for safety during earthquakes must also be implemented to educate the public on how to prepare and respond in the event of an earthquake. In conclusion, the recent Turkey earthquake serves as a reminder of the destructive power of earthquakes and the importance of preparedness and safety measures. The Kashmir valley, with its history of devastating earthquakes, must not overlook the potential for future earthquakes, and it is crucial that the necessary steps are taken to prevent the loss of life and destruction of property. The scientific community, policymakers, and civil society must work together to ensure that the region is prepared for the inevitable earthquakes to come.
Tectonic setting of Kashmir Valley: The Himalayas, the world’s highest mountain range, were formed by the collision of the Indian and Eurasian plates. The northward movement of the Indian plate and the southward movement of the Eurasian plate resulted in the subduction of the oceanic crust of neo-Tethys, which took place over a period of 200 to 50 million years. Despite being the subject of extensive research over the years, the geometry, dynamics, and kinematics of the Himalayas are still not fully understood. Nevertheless, it is clear that the Himalayas are one of the most tectonically active areas in the world and have been the site of many large-magnitude earthquakes. These earthquakes have resulted in numerous deaths and substantial damage to the civil infrastructure. The collision of the plates has also given rise to numerous inter-montane basins throughout the plate boundary. These basins are valleys between mountain ranges that are partially filled with unconsolidated material deposits. One such basin is the Kashmir basin, which is spread over an area of approximately 130 km by 45 km. The Kashmir valley was formed by a devastating earthquake that drained the ancient Karewa or Satisar lake, which was believed to have existed for millions of years. The present-day Karewa of Kashmir is a remnant of this lake. The Kashmir basin is bounded by the Pir-Panjal range to the southwest and the Zanskar range to the northeast. The basin is tectonically active and has been struck by devastating earthquakes from time to time. The region is surrounded by a number of thrust faults, including the Himalayan Frontal Thrust (HFT), Main Boundary Thrust (MBT), Main Central Thrust (MCT), Main Mantle Thrust (MMT), and the Kishtwar Fault, among others. Identifying and analyzing the faults within the Kashmir basin has been a challenge due to the erosion of soft-sediment deposits carried out by running waters. One of the most studied faults in the region is the Balapur fault, which has produced several deformations within the basin. The strike of the fault is estimated to be approximately 95 km and it is oriented from southeast to northwest. Some studies suggest, however, that the fault may be longer than estimated and could host a larger magnitude earthquake. In conclusion, the Himalayas are a unique geological formation that serves as an excellent model for the study of continent-continent collision. The formation of the inter-montane basins, including the Kashmir basin, is a direct result of the collision of the Indian and Eurasian plates. Despite extensive research, the dynamics and kinematics of the Himalayas are still not fully understood. The identification of faults within the Kashmir basin has proven to be a challenge, but the Balapur fault is one of the most studied and is believed to have the potential to cause significant damage in the future.
(Author is a freelancer. The views, opinions, facts, assumptions, presumptions and conclusions expressed in this article are those of the authors and aren’t necessarily in accord with the views of “Kashmir Horizon”.)
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