Valley Votes: Surging Turnout In Kashmir Signals Winds Of Change

The voter turnout in Srinagar and Baramulla constituencies of the Kashmir Valley notably falls below the national average. Srinagar recorded a turnout of merely 38.5%, while preliminary figures from Baramulla show a slightly higher 59.1%.  These figures contrast sharply with the national average of 66.95% for the first four phases and 61.61% for the fifth phase, according to early trends. However, they mark a significant improvement compared to past elections in the Valley, such as the dismal 13% in Srinagar and 34.6% in Baramulla recorded in 2019. Notably, Baramulla achieved its highest turnout since 1984, reaching a participation rate of 61.1%. Over the past six years, the region has experienced significant political transformations, including the dissolution of the elected Assembly, the bifurcation of the erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir into two Union Territories, the revocation of the province’s special status by the Union government, and prolonged Internet shutdowns. Additionally, numerous politicians have been detained, contributing to an atmosphere of political tension. While local body elections have taken place since these events, the upcoming general election marks the first major poll with substantial participation from the Valley’s mainstream political parties. Since 2018, political activity in the Valley has been severely restricted, leaving citizens with few avenues to voice their grievances, especially in the absence of legislative representation in the Assembly.  Consequently, essential livelihood concerns have remained inadequately addressed, highlighting the urgent need for genuine representation of the electorate’s voices.  Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s assertion that the increased polling in these constituencies validates the decision to revoke the special status under Article 370 lacks logical coherence. Several factors contributed to this notable surge in voter turnout. Intensive campaigning by major political players such as the National Conference (NC), People’s Democratic Party (PDP), People’s Conference (PC), and the Awami Ittehad Party (AIP) played a pivotal role. Their concerted efforts to engage with voters and address their concerns likely spurred the increased participation.  Additionally, effective management and thorough preparations by election authorities, including the deployment of 2,103 polling stations equipped with CCTV surveillance, ensured a seamless and secure voting process. Since the revocation of Article 370, all eyes have been on Jammu and Kashmir, particularly the Kashmir region. Notably, the BJP refrained from fielding candidates in any of the three constituencies in the Kashmir Division.  The 59 percent voter turnout in the Baramulla constituency closely mirrors the national voting average, signaling that Kashmiri citizens are as actively engaged in the electoral process as their counterparts across the country. This significant turnout underscores the people’s confidence.  The primary takeaway from Election Day was the prevailing peace and order, a notable departure from the violence that has marred past elections in the region. This smooth conduct was the outcome of meticulous planning and stringent security measures, including extensive CCTV monitoring. The historic turnout in LS elections is a resounding endorsement of democracy. It sends a powerful message about the importance of democratic participation.  In a region often overshadowed by conflict and instability, voters have demonstrated that democracy remains a viable and crucial avenue for achieving their aspirations. Their participation speaks volumes about their faith in the ballot over the bullet.

“The historic turnout in LS elections is a resounding endorsement of democracy. It sends a powerful message about the importance of democratic participation.  In a region often overshadowed by conflict and instability, voters have demonstrated that democracy remains a viable and crucial avenue for achieving their aspirations. Their participation speaks volumes about their faith in the ballot over the bullet.”

Emergence of New Political Parties: After the Abrogation of Article 370, Jammu and Kashmir has witnessed the emergence of several new political entities, each with its own narrative and objectives. Among these newcomers is the Jammu and Kashmir Apni Party (JKAP), spearheaded by former Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) luminary Altaf Bukhari. Formed in March 2020, JKAP adopts a pragmatic stance, dismissing the idea of reinstating special status for the region, emphasizing a commitment to avoiding the peddling of unrealistic promises. Another noteworthy addition is the Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP), founded by Ghulam Nabi Azad, which entered the fray of Kashmiri politics with the intention of providing a fresh alternative. However, its ranks saw a reversal as several leaders, including former lawmakers, rejoined the Congress, underlining the volatility within the political landscape.  After the abrogation of J&K’s special status in 2019, the delimitation of both Assembly and parliamentary seats is governed by the Constitution. The Delimitation Commission was set up on 6th March 2020.  It was headed by retired Supreme Court Justice Ranjana Prakash Desai, with the Chief Election Commissioner and J&K’s Chief Electoral Officer as members, and J&K’s five MPs as associate members. Constituency boundaries were redrawn only in J&K when delimitation for the rest of the country was frozen until 2026.  The last delimitation exercise in J&K was carried out in 1995. In 2002, the then J&K government amended the J&K Representation of the People Act to freeze the delimitation exercise until 2026, as in the rest of the country.

“Despite restrictions, voter engagement increased, attributed to intensive campaigning and effective election management. The emergence of new political parties further diversifies the landscape. Delimitation of constituencies, governed by the Constitution, has been initiated, marking a significant development in the region’s electoral process.”

Kashmir Horizon View: The voter turnout in Srinagar and Baramulla constituencies of the Kashmir Valley is significantly below the national average but shows improvement from previous elections.  The region has undergone significant political changes, including the revocation of Article 370 and prolonged internet shutdowns, contributing to a tense atmosphere.  Despite restrictions, voter engagement increased, attributed to intensive campaigning and effective election management. The emergence of new political parties further diversifies the landscape. Delimitation of constituencies, governed by the Constitution, has been initiated, marking a significant development in the region’s electoral process.

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