The era of alliances has returned to Indian politics. Emphasizing the need for consensus to run the country, Prime Minister Narendra Modi outlined his vision for coalition governance. The new NDA government will be sworn in on Sunday. Narendra Modi has secured a historic third consecutive term as Prime Minister, elected by lawmakers of his National Democratic Alliance (NDA). This marks a shift back to coalition governance for the country. Modi is set to meet President Droupadi Murmu to present his claim to form the new government, with his swearing-in confirmed for Sunday evening. For the first time in a decade, Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is relying on regional party support to form the government. The BJP, which enjoyed a clear majority in its previous two terms, won only 240 seats in the lower house, falling short of the 272 needed for a majority. The NDA won 293 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha, while the opposition India alliance, led by Rahul Gandhi’s Congress party, won over 230 seats, surpassing expectations. BJP and allied lawmakers, including those from the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and Janata Dal (United), unanimously voted for Modi as leader in their first meeting after the June 4 vote count. Modi’s candidacy was proposed by outgoing Defense Minister Rajnath Singh and seconded by other senior leaders and alliance members. The support was demonstrated with applause and chants of “Modi, Modi!” in the central hall of the old parliament building. In India, coalition politics has been prevalent for three decades, with no single party securing a majority in the Lok Sabha throughout the 80s, 90s, and early 2000s. Modi’s arrival in Delhi with a clear majority temporarily ended this era. Although part of the NDA, the BJP did not need to rely on coalition partners for ten years. However, in 2024, the BJP, despite being the largest party, needs the support of NDA constituents to form a government. This is a new experience for Modi, who did not bank upon coalition support since his initial Assembly election in Gujarat. Running a coalition government requires careful balancing. Atal Bihari Vajpayee, Modi’s political predecessor, was adept at managing coalition dynamics. Vajpayee’s handling of an irate Mamata Banerjee is a prime example of coalition management. Before exploring Vajpayee’s unique approach and this anecdote, let’s review India’s history of coalition politics. In its 73-year electoral history, India has experienced 32 years of coalition governments compared to 31 years of majority governments, including Modi’s ten-year tenure.
“In India, coalition politics has been prevalent for three decades, with no single party securing a majority in the Lok Sabha throughout the 80s, 90s, and early 2000s. Modi’s arrival in Delhi with a clear majority temporarily ended this era. Although part of the NDA, the BJP did not need to rely on coalition partners for ten years. However, in 2024, the BJP, despite being the largest party, needs the support of NDA constituents to form a government. This is a new experience for Modi, who did not bank upon coalition support since his initial Assembly election in Gujarat. Running a coalition government requires careful balancing. Atal Bihari Vajpayee, Modi’s political predecessor, was adept at managing coalition dynamics.”
Coalition politics first emerged in 1977 when multiple parties, including the Bharatiya Jana Sangh (predecessor to the BJP), formed the Janata government, which lasted until 1979. Subsequently, farmer leader Charan Singh briefly became Prime Minister with Congress’s support, which was withdrawn after just 23 days, highlighting coalition instability. Indira Gandhi returned to power in 1980 and remained Prime Minister until her assassination in 1983. The Congress party’s record majority in 1984, winning 414 of 541 seats, marked the pinnacle of its electoral success and the last instance of single-party rule for a long time. From 2004 to 2014, the Congress led coalition governments (UPA I and UPA II). In 2014, the BJP, leading a pre-poll alliance of NDA partners, won 282 seats, driven by the Narendra Modi wave, marking the return of single-party majority. The BJP repeated its success in 2019 with 303 seats, bolstered by national security concerns following the Pulwama attack. In the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the BJP needs coalition support, including from Chandrababu Naidu’s TDP (16 seats) and Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) (12 seats). Atal Bihari Vajpayee, needing coalition support in 1996 with just 161 seats, formed a government in 1998 with several parties’ support. Vajpayee’s inclusive approach helped him become the first non-Congress Prime Minister to complete a full term. A notable example of Vajpayee’s coalition management was his visit to Kolkata in 2000 to pacify Mamata Banerjee over the closure of public-sector units in West Bengal. Vajpayee’s personal approach, involving meeting her mother and showing concern, mollified Mamata and reinforced her value to the NDA. This approach, termed ‘coalition dharma’, emphasized respect for coalition partners. The BJP’s oldest allies, the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) and the Shiv Sena, left the NDA after the 2019 election. The SAD parted ways amid the farmers’ agitation in 2020, and the Shiv Sena split over the Maharashtra Chief Minister’s post in 2019. In 2024, the BJP, lacking a simple majority, reassembled a coalition of over two dozen parties to counter the opposition INDIA bloc. Allies like Chandrababu Naidu and Nitish Kumar, with their significant seat counts, are crucial for the BJP’s continued governance.
“Learning from past experiences and studying successful coalition models can provide valuable insights for current strategies. Leadership development through training programs on coalition management and mentorship from experienced leaders can further strengthen the coalition’s effectiveness. Promoting inclusive policies that address regional disparities and emphasizing cultural integration can foster national unity, ensuring that all coalition partners feel their regions’ needs are being met. By implementing these strategies, the BJP-led NDA government can navigate the complexities of coalition governance, ensuring stability, inclusivity, and progress for India.”
Kashmir Horizon View: The return of coalition politics in India requires a renewed focus on strengthening the dynamics between coalition partners. To ensure stability and effective governance, establishing consistent and transparent communication channels among coalition members is crucial. Developing a shared vision and a common minimum program (CMP) can align diverse agendas and minimize conflicts. Inclusive decision-making and involving all coalition partners in major policy decisions fosters a sense of ownership and collective responsibility. Trust-building measures, such as respecting the diverse ideologies and regional interests of coalition partners, and setting up formal conflict resolution mechanisms, are essential. Additionally, forming coalition management committees and utilizing parliamentary committees effectively can oversee the implementation of the CMP and manage day-to-day coordination, ensuring comprehensive scrutiny and consensus. To enhance public accountability and policy stability, it is vital to maintain transparency in governance and decision-making processes. Making coalition agreements and CMPs publicly available enhances accountability, while developing performance metrics to evaluate the coalition government’s progress on key promises ensures regular updates are shared with the public. Learning from past experiences and studying successful coalition models can provide valuable insights for current strategies. Leadership development through training programs on coalition management and mentorship from experienced leaders can further strengthen the coalition’s effectiveness. Promoting inclusive policies that address regional disparities and emphasizing cultural integration can foster national unity, ensuring that all coalition partners feel their regions’ needs are being met. By implementing these strategies, the BJP-led NDA government can navigate the complexities of coalition governance, ensuring stability, inclusivity, and progress for India.
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