Experts flag weakening snowpack and changing precipitation patterns
Light rain, snow likely from March 7: MeT
Irfan Yattoo
Srinagar: Jammu and Kashmir has recorded its seventh consecutive rainfall-deficient winter, with the December 2025–February 2026 period ending with a 65 per cent deficit, even as the Meteorological Department has forecast light rain and snowfall in higher reaches at isolated to scattered places between March 7 and 9.
According to data compiled by independent weather forecaster Faizan Arif, Kashmir region received only 100.6 mm of precipitation against a seasonal normal of 284.9 mm during the three core winter months.
“Jammu and Kashmir has recorded its seventh straight winter rainfall deficit, with the core winter period December 2025 to February 2026 ending at a 65 per cent departure from normal,” Arif said.
December recorded the sharpest deficit, with just 13.0 mm of rainfall against the normal 59.4 mm, a 78 per cent shortfall. January saw comparatively better precipitation due to some activity of western disturbances, recording 73.4 mm against the normal 95.1 mm, marking a 23 per cent deficit.
However, February witnessed a dramatic fall, recording only 14.2 mm against a normal of 130.4 mm, translating to an 89 per cent deficit.
“February turned disastrous. With nearly 90 per cent deficit, it was one of the driest February months in the recent record. This sharp collapse dragged the entire winter seasonal total down to minus 65 per cent,” Arif told this newspaper.
District-wise figures show Kishtwar recorded the highest rainfall deficit at 90 per cent, followed by Shopian at 82 per cent, while Srinagar and Jammu each registered a 64 per cent shortfall.
Arif’s analysis indicates a sustained dry phase in the region’s winter climate. Every winter since 2019–20 has ended below normal: 2019–20 (20 per cent deficit), 2020–21 (37 per cent), 2021–22 (8 per cent), 2022–23 (34 per cent), 2023–24 (54 per cent), and 2024–25 (45 per cent).
In contrast, earlier winters recorded surplus precipitation, including 2018–19 with a 36 per cent surplus, 2016–17 with 29 per cent, and 2012–13 with 14 per cent above normal.
“With December almost dry, January subpar, and February collapsing nearly 90 per cent below normal, the snowpack generation window has weakened substantially,” Arif said, adding that repeated deficits reduce the natural meltwater buffer that Kashmir traditionally relies on during late spring and summer.
He said the seven consecutive deficient winters indicate a possible shift in seasonal precipitation patterns, linked to increasing variability in the strength and frequency of Western Disturbances and longer dry spells between weather systems.
Environmental policy expert Muhammad Irfan Shah said declining winter precipitation could have far-reaching consequences for Kashmir’s fragile ecosystem.
“Winter snowfall acts as a natural water reservoir for Kashmir. Reduced snowfall and rainfall directly affect river flows, groundwater recharge, and irrigation systems that farmers depend on during the summer months,” Shah said.
Similarly, environmental researcher Faheem Jeelani said the repeated deficits could signal deeper climate variability in the region.
“Seven consecutive deficient winters indicate that the precipitation pattern is becoming increasingly unpredictable. If this trend continues, it could seriously affect horticulture, agriculture and the overall hydrological balance of the Valley,” he said.
Experts also warned that weaker snowfall means reduced snowpack in the mountains, which traditionally sustains water supply through gradual melting during spring and summer.
“With December almost dry, January subpar, and February collapsing nearly 90 per cent below normal, the snowpack generation window has weakened substantially,” Arif said, adding that repeated deficits reduce the natural meltwater buffer that Kashmir relies on during late spring and summer.
Meanwhile, Director Meteorological Department Srinagar, Dr Mukhtar Ahmad, said the region is likely to witness generally dry weather until March 6.
“From March 7 to 9, the weather is expected to remain generally cloudy with light rain in plains and light snowfall over higher reaches at isolated to scattered places,” he said.
The weather is likely to remain partly to generally cloudy with light rain or snow in higher reaches at scattered places between March 10 and 11, while March 12 to 15 is expected to remain largely dry.
Dr Mukhtar said that another spell of generally cloudy weather with light rain or snow in higher reaches at isolated places is expected between March 16 and 17.
The department has advised farmers to continue farm operations, noting that daytime temperatures are likely to rise by 2–3°C at most places during the next three days before falling by 3–5°C at many places thereafter.
