The earth’s climate although relatively stable for the past ten thousand years or so has always been changing mainly due to natural causes . But since the 1900s more rapid changes have taken place and these are thought to be man made. Global warming mean temperature increased by 0.740C during last 100 years and by the year 2100 best estimates predict between 1.80C and 40C rise in average global temperature, although it could possibly be as high as 6.40C.
The IMD monitoring reveals that temperatures are increasing both in Jammu region and Kashmir valley, with significant increase inin maximum temperature of 0.050C per year. The average mean temperature in Kashmir has risen by 1.450C is last 20 years while in Jammu region it has increased by the rise in 2.320C. Agricultural and horticultural crops have a much bigger role t o play in countering the negative consequences of climate change by providing a better carbon trade and carbon sink. One of the most ominous physiological responses that occur in response to climate change is the shortened growing period, causing distinctive reduction in production of fruits and vegetables. These responses will leave negative impact on growth and development of agricultural horticultural crops due to terminal heat stress and deprived soil water availability.
Interventions seeking climate climate-smart agriculture are, therefore, felt an unwarranted necessity integrating location-specific and knowledge-intensive premise for improving production under such challenging environment. Crop-based adaptation strategies are needed keeping in view the nature of crop, its sensitivity level and the agro-ecological region. Simultaneously, keeping an eye on carbon sink potential of different agricultural and horticultural crops vis-à-vis annual field crops will further aid in developing a blue print for redressal of climate change related issues. Temperate fruit production is a major industry in Kashmir Valley.Temperate fruit and nut trees require adequate winter chill to produce economically viable yields. Global warming has the potential to reduce available winter chill and greatly impact crop yields. In Kashmir the present climate during winter is not in accordance with previous year winters and to predict the temperature in coming months is not possible due to varying climate change which is going to effect the fruit production drastically.
“The climatic changes are causing a decline in apple production and a drastic reduction in the area under cultivation. As a result, farmers are beginning to shift apple orchards to higher altitudes where the temperatures are more suitable. This move also presents an opportunity to adopt modern, high-density farming practices.”
As a result of rise in temperature and decline in rainfall the stone fruits are fast disappearing from some areas of Kashmir Valley.There is posssiblity of drought. There will be new emergence of pests and diseases which will be diificult to manage. Like in Apple Crop, there is possibility of canker disease due to continous dry spell during winter hours. As a result of rise in temperature and decline in rainfall, the apricot and cherries are fast disappearing from some areas of Kashmir Valley. Due to general rise temperature and less availability of water, the yield and quality of apples in valley and mid temperate region of Kashmir Valley are fast deteriorating. Over the last few years, there has been distinct slow growth in production and productivity in rain-fed Kashmir’s Karewas areas. Due to unusual hailstorms and windstorms in summer fruits like cherry, apple, plum, peach and apricot are getting damaged heavily
In recent years there marked change in the pattern of snowfall in Kashmir which is effecting all the pome and stone fruits. It has been observed that the snowfall and flowering in some years is coinciding leading to great loss in quantity and quality of fruits. Due to shortage of water for agronomic crops like rice shift has been recorded from agronomic crops to temperate fruits and nut in Kashmir region as fruit crops are more remunerative as compared to agronomic crops.The decrease in chill units may be due to the overall increasing trend of average temperature over the period. This indicates that the climatic conditions particularly temperature results in unfavorable conditions for the apple production in the Kashnir Valley in the recent years. This may lead to shift in apple belt to higher altitude .The area under apple cultivation has drastically reduced. It may be due to less rainfall and higher temperature in winter. It is causing major issue of chilling requirement which is very important to achieve higher and quality production of apple.
(The author is a freelancer. The views, opinions and conclusions expressed in this article are those of the author and aren’t necessarily in accord with the views of “Kashmir Horizon”)
Roohi Jaan
