If there is any positive story of 2019 Lok Sabha election results emanating from Kashmir valley, it is indeed the spectacular performance of Engineer Rashid in Baramulla Lok Sabha seat, which is the largest Lok Sabha seat of Kashmir valley spanning three vast districts of Baramulla, Bandipora and Kupwara. Engineer Rashid despite losing the Lok Sabha election has actually emerged as the “only winner” from North Kashmir. Baramulla Lok Sabha seat is home to 15 assembly segments and comprises of diverse mix of Koshur Sunnis and Koshur Shias, Pahari Muslims, Gurezi Shina and Gujjar & Bakarwal communities, all living in significant numbers in different parts of this Lok Sabha constituency. Therefore, capturing imagination of this diverse mix of ethnic communities means capturing imagination of a large section of the people of entire J&K state and Engineer seems to have done exactly that. But the million-dollar question is that will Engineer be able to replicate his stupendous performance in upcoming assembly elections too? And what does this spectacular electoral performance mean for him? Will he enter the next big league of J&K’s politics and occupy the much-coveted chair of Deputy CM or perhaps even CM of J&K state? Most electorate of Baramulla Lok Sabha seat are calling Mohammad Akbar Lone of National Conference – a “technical” winner because a big chunk of nearly 25,000 votes were casted in his favor only from his stronghold of Sonwari, which made all the difference in deciding who the winner of Baramulla Lok Sabha would be. However, when one analyses assembly segments in details, an entirely different picture emerges. While Engineer is clearly in lead in as many as 5 constituencies of North Kashmir – Langate (his stronghold), Baramulla town, Tangmarg, Uri & Karnah, he has come second on as many as 4 seats – Sangrama, Rafiabad, Lolab, and Sopore. In Sangrama and Rafiabad, Engineer infact lost to NC’s candidates by only few hundred to less than thousand votes. Even in Bandipora & Kupwara, where Engineer has come third, the difference between him and PDP’s candidate is just over 300 votes.
So, what does all this data mean? Well this effectively means that Engineer Rashid, who fought as an independent candidate has a fighting chance in as many as 11 out of 15 assembly seats of Baramulla Lok Sabha constituency. If one excludes “stronghold” seats like Sonawari seat of Mohammad Akbar Lone (NC); Gurez seat of Nazir Ahmad Khan Gurezi (NC); Handwara town seat of Sajjad Lone (PC) and Shia dominated Pattan seat of Maulana Imran Raza Ansari (PC), then Engineer Rashid is well on his way to increase his assembly tally to double digits, all from North Kashmir only. This could indeed be strengthened, if the “gathbandhan” between Awami Itehad Party (AIP), the party that Engineer Rashid constituted in 2013 and Shah Feasal’s Jammu & Kashmir People’s Movement (JKPM) is sealed. This alliance could well emerge as a “third force” or “king maker” in Jammu & Kashmir’s electoral politics. Another fascinating facet of Engineer Rashid’s victory has been his huge lead in Uri and Karnah, which are dominated by non-Koshur communities like Pahari Muslims and Gujjar & Bakarwals. These two seats have been traditional strongholds of Congress & NC and Engineer’s lead in these seats shows his growing popularly among J&K’s 2 million Gujjars and 1 million Pahari Muslims, who are also spread over Jammu’s Poonch and Rajouri, which could potentially give Engineer dividends in Pir Panjal region too.All this analysis eventually lead us to one question – Will Engineer Rashid, who has till now acted as a one man army, rabble rouser, firebrand speaker, “controversial” legislator or as many Kashmiri politicians from other parties call him – “theatrical” and “dramebaaz”, can he now enter into much more serious deliberations of any prospective government formation in J&K, if he is able to replicate his electoral success in upcoming assembly elections?
The answer to this question depends upon how Engineer is able to transform himself from a legislator representing one single constituency to a politician, who has a pan J&K acceptability. Unlike past, when Kashmiri Chief Ministers only pandered largely to their own electorate in Kashmir valley, no Chief Minister of J&K can today be seen representing only one region or religion. Neither can a CM from Jammu region ignore Kashmir valley nor can a CM from Kashmir ignore Jammu & Ladakh. This is the new political reality of today and most political parties in J&K already know this. Also, calling Engineer Rashid a “joker” would be a big mistake as he has been regularly voicing his opinion in the most intellectually sound and articulate manner on nearly all issues of political and social importance pertaining to J&K on his Facebook account that has earned him an immense popularity all over J&K state. Engineer Rashid however does need to expand his outreach to non-Muslim communities and non-Muslim majority regions of J&K state including Kashmiri Pundits, Hindu dominated areas of Jammu and Buddhist dominated areas of Leh, Nubra and Zanskar. It is one thing to gear one’s politics around one issue or community as a legislator, but once you enter into that big league, one has to speak for all, especially in a multi ethnic, multi religious and multi linguistic state of J&K, whose electoral politics has its own norms, not seen anywhere else in entire South Asia. Engineer Rashid has come a long way since he entered J&K assembly in 2008 from Langate after resigning from his job as a construction engineer and during this journey, he has traversed the complex world of Kashmir’s messy and violent politics all alone, without any formal organizational support. Despite being an independent legislator, his name was among the most well-known Kashmiris politicians. And today after nearly a decade, his moment to shine has finally arrived. A proverbial “dark horse” of Kashmir’s elitist and dynastic electoral politics has now emerged and Kashmir’s ever changing electoral politics may well be on the cusp of a major change.
( The author an aspiring politician and former PRO to former Chief Minister Omar Abdullah has the distinction of having several years of corporate work experience at some of top Fortune-500 companies like Infosys Technologies Bangalore…. Views are his own [email protected])
