Srinagar: Kashmir is facing an unusual and prolonged dry spell during the 40-day harshest winter period, known as Chillai Kalan, with no major snowfall in sight. Environmentalists are expressing alarm, warning that the absence of snow could lead to disastrous consequences for glaciers and water bodies, potentially triggering acute water shortages in the upcoming summer.
This unexpected dry spell, coupled with the influence of climate change, El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) over the region, has led to concerns about the impact on the environment. Dr. Irfan Rashid, Senior Assistant Professor at the Department of Geo-informatics, University of Kashmir (KU) told Kashmir Horizon that after a span of seven years, Kashmir is once again witnessing a winter devoid of snow. He cautions that the anticipated impacts of future climate change, coupled with decreasing snowfall and alterations in streamflow, are poised to have a significant effect on the timely availability of water for diverse purposes such as hydropower projects, irrigation, flood vulnerability, and the equitable sharing of the Indus waters. Gulmarg, a renowned ski resort and tourist destination in north Kashmir, has witnessed disappointment among tourists and stakeholders due to the lack of snowfall. The absence of the characteristic snow-covered peaks has resulted in cancellations and deferred travel plans for many visitors. This winter’s unprecedented dry spell in Kashmir is highlighted by historical data from the Indian Meteorological Department over the past 130 years. Despite overall precipitation stability, a noticeable reduction in snowfall has become apparent, with 18 instances since 1981 reporting below-normal precipitation in December and January.
The changing snowfall pattern is attributed to escalating winter temperatures, as revealed by historical records. Some years, like 1985, 1986, 1990, and 1994, experienced substantial snowfall, while others, such as 1993, 1998, 1999, 2005, 2014, 2016, and 2023, saw entirely dry Decembers. Researchers caution that the rise in minimum temperatures, compounded by weaker westerlies, may lead to a potential 30%-70% reduction in snowfall by the end of the century, emphasizing the long-term implications of climate change in the Kashmir region. “The reduced snowfall may expose glacier surfaces earlier than usual to summer heat, exacerbating ice loss and affecting key sectors like agriculture and hydropower generation,” he said. Gulmarg ski resort, once bustling with skiing activities, now wears a deserted look due to the ongoing dry spell. Dr. Rashid calls for comprehensive studies on the sustainability of winter tourism and changes in western disturbances responsible for snowfall in the region.
“In September of the preceding year, the persistent dry weather in the valley resulted in a 70-year low in the water level of Jhelum for that month. Officials reported that the valley experienced its driest September, marking the second-highest temperature since 1934 for that month. The ongoing dry spell in Kashmir underscores the need for urgent attention to the changing climate patterns and their potential impact on the region’s water resources, agriculture, and tourism sectors.”
Director Meteorological Centre, Srinagar, Mukhtar Ahmad, attributes the snowless conditions to changes in global atmospheric circulations and the persistence of El Nino. He explains the disruption in the global atmospheric circulation, affecting precipitation patterns during El Nino years. As Kashmir experiences one of its driest winters, there is no forecast of snowfall until January 17. The region recorded a maximum temperature of 14.2 degrees Celsius on January 9, significantly above average. The water deficit is evident, with zero precipitation in the first 10 days of January, raising concerns about water levels in rivers and streams. Sanjeev Malhotra, Chief Engineer of the Jal Shakti Department Kashmir told Kashmir Horizon that prolonged dry spell has taken a toll on water sources, leading to a significant depletion. “As a response, the department has initiated the distribution of drinking water through tankers in various areas across Kashmir. In case the water level continues to decrease, we have contingency measures in place, including dredging for surface water sources and channels to uphold water levels,” he said.
In addressing concerns regarding drinking water shortages, he clarified that, from a broader perspective, there is currently no overall scarcity of water. However, he acknowledged the gravity of the situation, citing the low gauge at Sangam in August of the previous year as an indicator of the severity of the crisis. Expressing optimism, CE Malhotra anticipates potential relief in higher elevations with the prospect of snowfall in the next 15 to 20 days. The Chief Engineer underscored that the decline in drinking water supply is a consequence of climate changes affecting the region. In September of the preceding year, the persistent dry weather in the valley resulted in a 70-year low in the water level of Jhelum for that month. Officials reported that the valley experienced its driest September, marking the second-highest temperature since 1934 for that month. The ongoing dry spell in Kashmir underscores the need for urgent attention to the changing climate patterns and their potential impact on the region’s water resources, agriculture, and tourism sectors.
