A New wave of COVID-19 is sparing none!

The Second wave of COVID19 has put India in a bind with Centre and States doubling down efforts to bring worrying situation under control. With cases rising continuously and rapidly, the pandemic appears to be bigger threat now than it was during the first phase in the last year.Many experts believe India is facing the threat of a devastating and deadlier second wave of the virus. A deadly wave of COVID-19 is overwhelming India: New cases have hit 400,000+ per day, and more than 215,000 people have lost their lives. The health system is buckling under demand, but we’re helping families reach vaccinations as we work in close contact with health workers who need masks, COVID-19 test kits, and disinfectant to save lives and stay safe. The defining characteristic of the second wave was the high positivity rate. Out of those being tested, many more people were turning out to be positive as compared to the first wave. India’s overall positivity rate remained between 5% and 6% during the first wave, although there were small phases where it rose to more than 12 per cent. In the second phase, however, the positivity rate has exceeded 20%. In some states, it even went past 40%. Positivity rate is a measure of the disease prevalence in the population. If a very large number of people are infected, many more would be detected positive when tested. A higher positivity rate could be an indicator of faster transmission of the virus, either because the new mutants are faster-transmitting, or because physical distancing rules have been abandoned, allowing the virus to spread freely. The positivity rate had kept on rising throughout the month of April and also the first week of May, but now there are signs that it might be stabilizing. In fact, the growth curve of positivity rate looks very similar to that of the daily case count. Experts believe that India’s second wave is being fuelled by people being less cautious – and mixed messaging by the government. After being cooped up in their homes for nearly a year, many Indians have begun congregating at crowded weddings and family functions without taking precautions.
WHO chief scientist Soumya Swaminathan, discounts projections that the Second Wave will come down sharp just as it went up sharp. It is believed that the diminishing of the Second Wave will be a prolonged affair.
The second surge of COVID-19 puts children and younger adults at high risk with the situation being very grim especially in rural and tribal areas which were spared in the first wave, warn experts even as the country has been witnessing a steady rise in cases and with the government on Thursday opening up vaccination to all persons 45 years and above. Children and young adults were mostly uninfected so far and therefore are at high risk of contracting the infection. The schools and colleges were closed fearing that it might result in higher risk of transmission if kept open. There is no doubt that many States are surging and as a result, the country is witnessing a rise in cases amounting to the ascending phase of a second wave. Based on some of the results of modeling done by experts at the COVID-19 study group, the peak of this wave seems in the May, 2021. If the rise in cases continues as steeply as they are now, there will be a strain on the health system. The latest surge has surpassed anything endured since Covid-19 first struck. It has cut across the country’s many social, economic and geographic divides, affecting both rich and poor in rural and urban areas. The turmoil has been intensified by a crippling shortage of life-saving supplies such as oxygen as well as new Covid-19 variants.
When will covid 2.0 subside? Experts differ on the question of how long the second wave will take to subside and infection levels to hit manageable levels. Would it drop rapidly like a cliff or taper off gradually in a series of rolling hills? If we look back at the first wave of infections last year, it was a very gentle climb which almost went unnoticed and so was the decline. We believe the decline will not be a sheer drop but a benign process which will take a month-and-a-half before it stabilizes. There would be a rapid decline from the peak till it gets down to around 50,000 to 60,000 cases daily which would be the intersection point where the disease slows down. It will not balloon down as fast as it took off, so we have to be very watchful as there is a risk that new variants may come in and queer the pitch. WHO chief scientist Soumya Swaminathan, discounts projections that the Second Wave will come down sharp just as it went up sharp. It is believed that the diminishing of the Second Wave will be a prolonged affair. Swaminathan points out that “predictions also depend on how interventions are being done. If there is a national lockdown for a couple of weeks, it will help bend the curve”. To illustrate her point, she cites how waves behaved in countries like the UK, US and Brazil. The UK, for instance, experienced several clear waves that subsided when the government implemented a lockdown but rose again when it opened up the country. In January, the UK imposed a prolonged lockdown and backed it with speedy vaccinations that covered much of its population. Swaminathan believes these measures will help the UK in staving off huge waves next time around.
( The author is a teacher at Govt High School Brakpora in South Kashmir’s Anantnag district. Views are his own)
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